It was only a matter of time until economists at Australia’s big banks sharply upgraded their property market forecasts upwards.
And who can blame them, what with CoreLogic’s national home value index recently posting its second consecutive monthly rise and gaining 0.5% in April?
Bolstering the case that the downturn has bottomed out is:
- A capital city auction clearance rate that’s recently been holding well above 70% – a rate generally considered a sign of a rising market.
- An uptick in home loan lending – with recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data showing new loan commitments rose 4.9% to $24.0 billion in March from February
So out went the previous dire predictions of property prices plunging by as much as double figures this year to be replaced with more optimistic views.
Westpac was first out of the box, with chief economist Bill Evans declaring the downturn “largely over” after the housing markets showed “convincing signs of stabilising”.
As a result, he now believes values will remain flat this year (up from a 7% decline) with a 5% increase predicted for 2024 (up from 2%) – see the below chart.
Commonwealth Bank soon followed, with the nation’s biggest home loan lender now predicting prices nationally to rise by 3% this year, with Sydney values rising by as much as 5%. Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth are tipped to gain 2% with Adelaide holding flat.
The positive momentum is expected to continue next year, with Brisbane soaring by another 7%, Melbourne by 6% and Sydney by 4%.
Not to be outdone, ANZ says ”we’re past the worst for housing prices”, and has forecast gains for every capital city in 2024, led by Brisbane with 5% – see below.
